Sectors / Mega-Cap Tech

The platforms
at the center.

The six US tech mega-caps make up roughly 30% of the S&P 500 and most of the AI capex flowing into the rest of the economy. R2A tracks 14 platform names — the ones that own the underlying customer relationships everything else depends on.

14
Names covered
4
Buy calls
8
Hold
2
Sell
Illustration: the platforms

The Thesis

The post-2022 thesis that "AI will commoditize the platforms" hasn't survived contact with the cash flows. Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta are spending more on capex in 2026 than the entire S&P 500 ex-financials spent on capex in 2010. They're funding it from operating cash. They're also building the infrastructure that monetizes the AI they're spending on. The wheel is closed.

R2A's variant view: the platforms aren't a single trade. Microsoft is the cleanest AI exposure with a real software moat. Amazon has AWS plus the Anthropic relationship plus retail logistics that get more defensible with AI. Meta is the most asymmetric — Reality Labs is a draw on cash, but Llama and a billion-user social graph make the AI distribution math better than anyone else's. Apple has the hardest AI story to tell publicly but the most installed-base optionality. R2A is selectively constructive on the four with the cleanest story; the rest (Oracle, Salesforce, Intuit) are Holds. Baidu and Alibaba are Sells on China-specific issues, not platform-tech issues.

The Names

All Buy Hold Sell
MSFT
Buy Conviction High
Microsoft · Hyperscaler / AI Platform
OpenAI partnership, Azure AI, Copilot in Office, GitHub. The platform with the cleanest AI story across consumer, enterprise, and developer surfaces.
Scenario range
$330$701$880$1,050
BearBaseBullMoon
Last price$414.44
R2A fair value$701
AMZN
Buy Conviction High
Amazon · AWS / Anthropic / Trainium
AWS is the cash cow, Anthropic relationship is the AI optionality, retail and logistics are the moat. Trainium silicon is the long-term cost advantage.
Scenario range
$180$432$540$680
BearBaseBullMoon
Last price$268.26
R2A fair value$432
META
Buy Conviction Medium
Meta · Social + AI + Reality Labs
Llama is the credible open-source competitor to OpenAI. The Reality Labs cash burn is the controversial part; the underlying ad business keeps compounding.
Scenario range
$320$945$1,280$1,600
BearBaseBullMoon
Last price$608.74
R2A fair value$945
GOOGL
Buy Conviction Medium
Alphabet · Search + AI + Cloud + Waymo
Search is the cash machine and the existential risk both. Gemini is closing the gap; Waymo is the best-positioned robotaxi. Cheapest mega-cap on every metric.
Scenario range
$220$468$580$720
BearBaseBullMoon
Last price$385.69
R2A fair value$468
AAPL
Hold Conviction Medium
Apple · Consumer Hardware + Apple Intelligence
Massive installed base, biggest cash generator on Earth, AI story still emerging. China remains the swing factor. Holding on a multiple that doesn't fully reward the optionality.
Scenario range
$190$387$460$540
BearBaseBullMoon
Last price$280.14
R2A fair value$387
BABA
Sell Conviction High
Alibaba · China Ecomm / AI Cloud
The fundamentals are fine. The geopolitics aren't. R2A's view is that the regulatory and US-listing overhang doesn't clear, regardless of how cheap the multiple gets.
Scenario range
$75$135$180
BearBaseBullMoon
Last price$131.46
R2A fair value$135

Full Coverage

Every name R2A tracks in Mega-Cap Tech. Click any column header to sort.

Ticker Company Call Conviction Last R2A FV Moon
AMZN
Amazon
AWS + Anthropic + Retail
Buy●●● High$268.26$432.00
MSFT
Microsoft
Hyperscaler / AI Platform
Buy●●● High$414.44$701.00
GOOGL
Alphabet (Class A)
Search + AI + Cloud + Waymo
Buy●● Medium$385.69$468.00
META
Meta Platforms
Social + AI + Reality Labs
Buy●● Medium$608.74$945.00
AAPL
Apple
Consumer Hardware + Apple Intelligence
Hold●● Medium$280.14$387.00
NFLX
Netflix
Streaming
Hold●● Medium$92.06$120.00
ORCL
Oracle
Cloud Infra / DB
Hold●● Medium$171.85$222.00
UBER
Uber
Mobility / Delivery
Hold●● Medium$75.13$100.50
CRM
Salesforce
SaaS Platform / Agentic AI
Hold●● Low$183.77$208.00
INTU
Intuit
Fintech SaaS
Hold●● Low$399.04$480.00
SHOP
Shopify
E-comm Platform
Hold●● Low$127.67$145.00
SPOT
Spotify
Audio Streaming
Hold●● Low$441.62$585.00
BABA
Alibaba
China Ecomm / AI Cloud
Sell●●● High$131.46$135.00
BIDU
Baidu
China Search / AI / AV
Sell●●● High$125.88$111.00