Sectors / Defense

The new industrial
base.

Defense procurement is being rewritten — software-defined warfare, autonomous platforms, hypersonics, space dominance. R2A tracks 27 names across the primes, the new wave, and the private companies building the next decade of capability.

27
Names covered
9
Buy calls
10
Hold
8
Private comps
Illustration: software-defined warfare

The Thesis

The post-Cold-War defense industry was a five-prime oligopoly building expensive platforms with long development cycles. Ukraine broke that model in public. Cheap drones killed expensive tanks. Software upgrades mattered more than airframes. The Pentagon now has a Replicator initiative aiming to field tens of thousands of attritable autonomous systems — categories that didn't exist in the budget five years ago.

R2A's variant view: the new defense industrial base is bifurcated. The primes (LMT, RTX, NOC, GD) are late-cycle compounders with predictable cash flows — useful, not exciting. The new wave (Anduril, Shield AI, Saronic, Helsing — all private) is where the structural growth is happening. The public-market handles to get exposure are Palantir (defense AI software), Kratos (defense autonomy primes the original moonshot), AeroVironment, Karman, and the second-derivative beneficiaries in Space and AI Infra. Lots of private names here are pre-IPO — when they come public the entry will be hard.

The Names

All Buy Hold Primes Autonomy Private
PLTR
Buy Conviction High
Palantir · Defense AI + Software
The closest thing to a defense software platform that actually scales across customers. Government cash flows fund commercial expansion. Multiple is rich; the growth keeps justifying it.
Scenario range
$70$180$260$380
BearBaseBullMoon
Last price$144.07
R2A fair value$180
KTOS
Buy Conviction Medium
Kratos · Defense Autonomy
The original defense moonshot. Valkyrie (XQ-58) is the unmanned wingman that's already flying. Government orders are real and accelerating; valuation reflects some of that.
Scenario range
$30$95$140$200
BearBaseBullMoon
Last price$58.78
R2A fair value$95
NOC
Buy Conviction Medium
Northrop Grumman · Defense Prime
B-21 Raider is the marquee program for the next decade. Space & missile defense exposure rounds out the portfolio. The most balanced prime in the new threat environment.
Scenario range
$420$720$790$850
BearBaseBullMoon
Last price$568.18
R2A fair value$720
Private
Anduril
Watch Conviction High
Anduril Industries · Defense AI + Autonomy
The category-defining new-wave defense company. Lattice software platform + Sentry, Ghost, Roadrunner, Fury hardware. IPO whenever they want it.
Scenario range (private)
~$30B~$60B$120B+
BearBaseBullMoon
Last reported~$30B
AccessNot public
RTX
Buy Conviction Medium
RTX · Aerospace & Defense
Pratt & Whitney aftermarket is the cash engine; Raytheon defense systems are the missile-defense play. GTF issues mostly behind, throughput recovering.
Scenario range
$130$235$290
BearBaseBullMoon
Last price$172.69
R2A fair value$235
Private
Shield AI
Watch Conviction High
Shield AI · Autonomous Flight
The autonomy stack for drones — Hivemind. V-BAT proven in Ukraine. The brain layer competing with Anduril on different terrain.
Scenario range (private)
~$5B~$12B$25B+
BearBaseBullMoon
Last reported~$5B
AccessNot public

Full Coverage

Every name R2A tracks in Defense. Click any column header to sort.

Ticker Company Call Conviction Last R2A FV Moon
PLTR
Palantir Technologies
Defense AI + Software
Buy●●● High$144.07$180.00
ATRO
Astronics
Aerospace + Test Systems
Buy●● Medium$71.21$87.00
CACI
CACI International
Defense IT
Buy●● Medium$513.57$640.00
CDRE
Cadre Holdings
Protective Gear + Tactical
Buy●● Medium$29.84$36.00
ESLT
Elbit Systems
Israeli Defense Electronics
Buy●● Medium$831.22$920.00
GD
General Dynamics
Defense Prime
Buy●● Medium$345.78$360.00
KTOS
Kratos Defense
Defense Autonomy
Buy●● Medium$58.78$95.00
NOC
Northrop Grumman
Defense Prime
Buy●● Medium$568.18$720.00$850
RTX
RTX Corporation
Aerospace & Defense
Buy●● Medium$172.69$235.00
CW
Curtiss-Wright
Naval Propulsion / Flight
Hold●● Medium$712.93$755.00
HII
Huntington Ingalls
Naval Shipbuilding
Hold●● Medium$360.44$320.00
LDOS
Leidos
Defense IT/Intel
Hold●● Medium$149.27$170.00
LHX
L3Harris Technologies
Defense Electronics
Hold●● Medium$313.30$310.00
LMT
Lockheed Martin
Defense Prime
Hold●● Medium$512.66$560.00$660
ONDS
Ondas
Defense Drones / Autonomous
Hold●● Medium$10.32$13.00
RCAT
Red Cat Holdings
Defense Small-sUAS
Hold●● Medium$11.23$14.00
SARO
StandardAero
Aero Engine MRO
Hold●● Medium$24.52$35.00
TLS
Telos
Defense Cyber + Identity
Hold●● Medium$4.42$6.40
VVX
V2X
Defense Services
Hold●● Medium$67.74$73.00
Anduril
Anduril Industries
Defense AI + Autonomy
Watch●●● High~$30B
Epirus
Epirus
High-Power Microwave
Watch●●● High
Saronic
Saronic Technologies
Autonomous Surface Vessels
Watch●●● High
Shield AI
Shield AI
Defense AI / Autonomous Flight
Watch●●● High~$5B
Helsing
Helsing
European Defense AI
Watch●● Medium
Skydio
Skydio
Autonomous Defense Drones
Watch●● Medium
Castelion
Castelion
Hypersonic Missiles
Watch●● Low
Mach
Mach Industries
Hypersonic + Unmanned
Watch●● Low